You can’t say you didn’t hear it here first! 😉
San Francisco headlines are finally catching up to what we’ve been sharing for months: demand is surging and inventory is thin.
So what? Multiple-offer frenzies are back, BUT pockets of value still exist if you know where (and how) to look…
The "Costco Hotdog" Strategy: Demystifying the $1M Over-Ask
You’re likely seeing “shocking” stories of homes selling for $1M or $2M over list price. Last week, a home in the Inner Richmond went for roughly $2M over asking! CRAZY!!! Yes, jaw-dropping until you realize that the agent listed is almost $1M below the lowest recent ‘comparable’ sale in the area to spark a bidding war. When you factor in its amenities, it puts the market value closer to the final price. The emotional bidders took it a bit higher, and yes, it does now set the new standard for comps in the area.
But, don’t let this alone scare you. Again, this is the “Costco Hotdog” strategy. Much like the $1.50 hotdog combo, agents are choosing a “purposely low” list price to get people in the door. Once 15+ buyers fall in love and the bidding war starts, the price lands at fair market value (or slightly above).
In fact, across all of SF last month, 71% of Single-Family Homes sold above the list price, yet the average premium was 10%, not $1M+.
The Takeaway:
- Buyers: Don’t let the “$1M Over Asking” headlines scare you into thinking buyers are overpaying by seven figures. They are often paying the actual market price; the list price was just the bait. While we are seeing prices end higher than recent comps because the market is in an upward trajectory, the gap isn’t as wide as the “sticker price” suggests.
- Sellers: Under-pricing (generally) works!! But, the marketing, timing, and condition of the property also have to be dialed in!
Where are opportunities hiding?
(If There's a Will, There's a Way)
Despite the heat in many parts of the SF market, we are firm believers that flexibility creates opportunity. The market isn’t a one-size-fits-all, and those who think that way automatically lose. There are dozens on micro-markets across the Bay, some of which still have pockets of value – you just need to know where to look.
The Bottom Line
The “Spring Fever” of 2026 is real, and inventory remains historically tight (fewer than 550 homes for sale in all of SF). However, “hot” doesn’t mean “impossible.” It just means you need a strategy backed by data, not clickbait.
Whether you’re curious about your home’s current value or you’re a buyer trying to navigate the “Costco Hotdog” pricing games, we’re here to help you cut through the noise…