Last month, I talked about how the market was heating up — but the data hadn’t caught up yet. The closed sales and pricing numbers you see in most reports reflect offers accepted 30+ days ago, so they often lag behind what we’re seeing on the ground.
Now, the data is finally catching up — and it confirms what we’ve been feeling and talking about for weeks: the Bay Area market is back in full swing. Bay Area sales grew faster than any other region in the state!
Here are a few key trends from March and early April:
By the numbers:
1. Prices Are Rising — Especially in the Upper End
Bay Area prices continue to climb. Median sold prices are increasing month over month, with a noticeable boost in homes over $2M. This segment is now moving faster than we’ve seen over the last 2 years — and often with multiple offers.
In San Francisco County alone, the median price rose from $1.55M in February to over $1.75M in March — a 13% month-over-month increase.
2. Condos Are Making a Comeback
After a slower couple of years, condos — especially in San Francisco and the Peninsula — are seeing renewed demand. Buyers who had been sitting out are re-entering, and the pricing gap between condos and single-family homes is narrowing.
3. The “Low List Price” Strategy Is Back
We’re seeing more homes priced strategically low to attract attention and spark bidding wars. It’s a clear sign of a competitive market. Open houses are busier, and homes priced right are selling quickly and over asking.
In February, the share of homes sold above asking jumped to a 4-month high.
In San Francisco for single-family homes, for example, we see this clear trend with LIST prices, yet SALES prices are up 13% MoM (as noted above):
4. San Francisco: The Standout Market
Unlike other parts of California, San Francisco is defying the national slowdown narrative. Between a renewed energy in the city, return-to-office momentum, and the AI boom spilling into real estate, demand is strong — especially in desirable neighborhoods with good walkability and access to transit.
In fact, San Francisco leads the state in sales above asking price:
And, it seems that that trend could stick around for a while, as it is also the only county across all of California where housing supply (single family homes) DECREASED:
5. Inventory Is Slowly Picking Up — But It’s Still a Seller’s Market
Statewide, inventory remains tight — but we’re finally seeing some movement. Despite the numbers for San Francisco, active listings across the Bay Area increased in March, and we’re hopeful that more homeowners will jump in as confidence builds and the “lock-in effect” eases. (By the way…Wells Fargo economists said last week that a worsening labor market is likely to trigger several Fed rate cuts by year-end. They anticipate the Fed will cut rates by 1.25 percentage points (in total) by the end of 2025. That will also help to alleviate the “lock-in effect.”)
Still, with less than 2.5 months of inventory* In most counties, sellers remain in the driver’s seat at the moment!
*Months of inventory = how many months it would take to sell all of the homes for sale now if nothing else came on the market and demand continued as it is
Zooming Out: What’s the Fed Doing?
At their March meeting, the Fed held rates steady and maintained guidance for two rate cuts this year. Lower rates have already started unlocking buyer activity — just look at California home sales, which rebounded in February to their highest level in over two years.
As inflation and global economic conditions continue to evolve, the Fed will be walking a fine line — but the signal is clear: we’re likely at or near peak rates, and any movement downward could bring even more buyers into the market.
What This Means for You
If you’re a buyer: More competition and rising prices mean less leverage. But with inventory increasing, this spring might offer a window of opportunity before things heat up even more.
If you’re a seller: Buyer demand is strong, multiple offer scenarios are common again, and with well-executed pricing and marketing, you can maximize your return.
Let’s Talk Strategy
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just thinking ahead, I’m here to help you interpret the numbers and navigate this dynamic market. Just like every new day in the stock market, every neighborhood is different — so, let’s talk about what this means for your specific situation.
Reach out to strategize your next move.
Our Collective Wins
4 beds | 4.5 baths | $7.250M
Sonoma
For this stunning home, we faced a tough luxury market, lots of uncertainty, and big discoveries at the 11th hour. But we overcame it all! 🙌 We never stopped marketing in strategic and creative places. And we finally found the perfect buyer for this truly special party pad!
3 beds | 2 baths | $1.305M
Oakland
We beat out 3 competing offers to get our amazing clients their dream home and we couldn’t be more thrilled for them! 💥✨
This one took strategy, speed, and a whole lot of heart but it was so worth it.
3 beds | 2.5 baths | $2.226.500M
Lower Pacific Heights, SF
This amazing client came to us after an unsuccessful attempt at selling their home with a different agent, and we came in with a winning strategy and serious hustle. 💥 Now they’re celebrating a successful sale and a fresh new chapter!
3 beds | 2 baths | $1.799M
Russian Hill, SF
Sold at our seller’s dream price! 💰 With strategic pre-marketing and a thoughtful game plan, we positioned this home for success, and it paid off. Big time.
From day one, we knew what our client was aiming for, and we’re thrilled to say: mission accomplished. 🙌
