We’ve been getting lots of questions, based on some recent headlines: Are buyers really using Anthropic, OpenAI, etc. stock to buy San Francisco real estate? Should I just pivot my search to Marin? Will the housing market just keeping going up?
Well, we will tell you this: A “gold rush” mentality sweeping the city does one thing. It makes for a great story!
Here’s the problem: it’s (mostly) not true. And the real story is important for anyone thinking about buying or selling to understand.
Are People Really Trading Stock for Houses?
A Duboce Triangle listing said it would consider OpenAI or Anthropic shares as payment. Clever marketing, but the ultimate buyer didn’t use stock. A Mill Valley seller DM’d Anthropic employees on LinkedIn hoping to trade his $8M compound for stock. Those stories went viral, and the New York Times & Wall St Journal ran with them. 🗞️
But “went viral” and “is actually happening” are two different things. A follow-up piece in the San Francisco Standard (July 13, 2026) called all of this what it is: a myth. And full transparency — I was one of the agents quoted in it.
“We’re not seeing people actually offering stock. Sure, there’s anomalies and exceptions to every rule, but by and large, we are seeing the majority of offers actually still financed.”
Blakely Hull, in the SF Standard
That matches exactly what we’re seeing on the ground. Yes, we’re starting to see more cash offers than we used to. That’s real. But the majority of offers are still financed. Private companies like Anthropic and OpenAI also restrict how their shares can be transferred, which is a big part of why these “stock swap” deals mostly stay theoretical. If you’re a buyer, you do not need equity in a private AI company to compete here. And, you don’t need cash. You need to be prepared, well-financed, and ready to move.
So what: The AI-wealth story is real — it’s reshaping demand and prices. But the mechanisms for buying a home are mostly still old-fashioned (just with bigger paychecks). So, don’t let a viral headline talk you into thinking you’re priced out of the game, just because you don’t work at a frontier lab.
Can I Get More Bang for My Buck Outside San Francisco?
Well, the answer is any lawyer’s favorite response: “It depends.” (😉) We keep getting asked some version of “should I just look somewhere else,” and the honest response is: Not all parts of the Bay Area are created equal right now. Here’s the breakdown, county by county.
Marin: heating up fast, and no longer a true ‘release valve.’ Historically, when San Francisco overheats, buyers who get priced out and/or worn down by bidding wars start looking north — and Marin usually leads that spillover, before the East Bay catches up. That’s exactly what’s happening right now. Marin County’s median home price rose ~11% year-over-year to $1.8M, the only other Bay Area market besides SF to post a double-digit jump, and price per square foot is up 28% since December.
Bottom line: if you’re thinking “I’ll just look in Marin instead,” come prepared to compete in many cities there too — especially in Mill Valley, Tiburon, Sausalito, and Ross.
East Bay: the closest thing to an opportunity right now. This is where the math still works in a buyer’s favor, though it’s uneven, street by street.
Silicon Valley: just a different flavor of competition. Like San Francisco with the AI craze, this market is hot.
So what: If you’re feeling priced out of San Francisco, East Bay is probably your best “bang for the buck” right now. Marin still has some opportunities as well, but it is quickly heating up and increasingly requires the same level of preparation as San Francisco does. And Silicon Valley was never the discount play to begin with — go there for the schools and the commute, not the deal.
Will This Housing Craze Really Continue?
The stats tell us it will, particularly as long as we remain so inventory-constrained. Last month, we flagged July as a potential pocket of opportunity — the idea that properties that go into contract in July tend to close (and get reported) at lower price-per-square-foot figures than the March peak. That’s still true seasonally. But there’s a bigger force working against us this year: we simply don’t have the inventory to let that math fully play out.
Here’s the metric that explains why: months of supply, which measures how long it would take to sell every home currently on the market, at the current pace of sales, if no new listings came on.
San Francisco’s months of supply for June 2026 was 1.8 — nearly half of what it was just one year ago:
That’s not a subtle shift — that’s the tightest June we’ve tracked in years. The good news is that sellers are still listing through this point in summer, rather than everyone holding for a September relaunch. But “still listing” isn’t the same as “listing enough.” For the market to actually rebalance — for buyers to get real breathing room — we need meaningfully more homes for sale.
So what: The July opportunity window is real (particularly in specific segments), but it’s narrower than usual this year because there’s less to choose from.
- Buyers: don’t wait for a flood of new listings that may not come — when the right home shows up, be ready to move on it.
- Sellers: if you’ve been sitting on the fence about listing before September, 1.8 months of supply means you have more leverage right now than you likely will once the usual fall wave of inventory hits.
The Bottom Line
Two things are true about the Bay Area market right now, and neither of them is the headline you’ve been reading:
- For buyers: You don’t need AI equity to win here. You need to be financed, prepared, and realistic about where the competition — and the opportunity — actually is. Preparation is still what separates the winners from those who regularly strike out.
- For sellers: Inventory is historically tight — the tightest June we’ve seen in years — which means real leverage right now. If you’ve been waiting for the “right time,” the data suggests that time is closer to now than you think.
- For past clients: If you’re sitting on equity in San Francisco, the Peninsula, or Marin right now, this is a good moment for a quick check-in on where your home’s value stands. We’re always happy to run the numbers for you — no pressure, just information.
