Last month, we told you we thought a narrow window might be opening for buyers — a brief lull before the next wave of AI wealth lands on the Bay Area housing market. A few weeks later, here’s the update: the window is real. Not widespread, but definitely real…if you know where to look. Let’s look at a real-life story and some data to understand more…
A Tale of Two Listings 🏠🏢
We had buyer clients watching 2 potential homes, and we watched 2 very different outcomes unfold in real time. This was all across the same timeframe (within a week of each other). Same city. But, wildly different outcomes.
A home in the Outer Richmond: This was a very small single-family home (2 beds, 1 bath). Based on recent comps in the area, this one should have landed somewhere around $1.6M. Instead, it pulled in 11 offers and is in contract to close around $2.1M, considerably above where the comps said it should.
A TIC in the Inner Richmond: A TIC that came to market just days after the home above. They got tons of early interest, and the listing agent set a formal offer date, same as everyone expects in this market. Then the offer date came… and went. Zero offers. The property eventually went into contract a day or two later, at a price that landed around $1.325M — well below the ~$1.5M many people expected going in.
To be fair, TICs typically trade at a 10–15% discount to comparable condos in San Francisco, given the fractional financing and more complex ownership structure. But TICs in good locations (like this one) have been performing very well, usually exceeding expectations in this market.
These weren’t different markets. They were 10 minutes apart. The difference was that one turned into a genuine bidding war — bidders chasing each other up past anything the data supported — and the other was a property that needed a buyer to be patient, realistic, and willing to act when everyone else had already walked away. One was emotion. The other was opportunity.
The Data Behind the Summer Lull — and Why 2026 Might Be Different 📊
Here’s the second thing we’re watching closely: timing.
The seasonal pattern in San Francisco real estate is well-documented, but most people miss the detail that makes it actionable. When you look at median price per square foot across SF County over the last several years, you see the same story every spring and summer: prices peak in April, then dip before the fall market kicks back in.
But here’s what that data is actually telling you. Homes that close in April got into contract in March — the height of spring competition, when buyers are most active and most emotional. Homes that close in August got into contract in July, when a huge chunk of the buyer pool has mentally checked out for summer.
That timing gap is where the opportunity lives. Here’s what the numbers show, using median price per square foot across San Francisco County:
Every year, buyers who went into contract in July paid less per square foot than buyers who went into contract in March. The gap ranges from modest (2023, 2024) to over $100/sq ft in more volatile years (2022, 2025).
That just may make July the potential “magic window” for buyers who are ready to move. The catch — and this year, it’s a real one — is that you have to find the right home first.
And, this is where 2026 gets complicated.
Active listings in San Francisco have been declining steadily since mid-2025. In May 2024, there were 1,143 active listings. In May 2025: 1,122. In May 2026: just 850 — a 24.2% year-over-year decline, and the lowest level we’ve seen in at least three years. That steady contraction in supply has coincided with a steady climb in price per square foot, which now sits at $1,045/sq ft as of May 2026, up 4.8% year-over-year.
Which raises the honest question heading into summer: will the August 2026 data show the familiar seasonal dip, or will inventory be so thin that even the “slow” summer can’t move the needle? We genuinely don’t know. That data won’t exist until fall. What we do know is that the buyers who win in a July market aren’t the ones waiting for a headline discount. They’re the ones who stay ready, stay realistic, and move when the right home appears. In a city with 850 total active listings, “the right home” may come along exactly once. As they say — it only takes one.
So yes — by historical standards, it’s a little unusual that inventory is still this active this late into June.
But the chatter has started. A late-May report from the SF Standard quoted agents describing real "buyer fatigue" after a brutal spring, with the expectation that things would slow as kids get out of school and summer travel ramps up — which is exactly when San Francisco's market typically does ease.
To be clear: we are not telling you to expect a big discount. We don't think that is coming, and we'd rather be straight with you than sell you a headline. What we do think is this: the buyers who get rewarded in a moment like this — marginally, still but meaningfully — are the ones who stay engaged through the lull instead of checking out, and who are realistic about tradeoffs. No home is perfect. The TIC buyer in our original story understood that. The buyers chasing the Richmond home past $2.1M, less so.
How Much Will the AI IPO Wave Actually Move Bay Area Home Prices?
Last month we flagged the AI IPO pipeline as the macro tailwind to watch. Since then, the timeline went from theoretical to very real.
- SpaceX already went public on June 12, debuting above a $2 trillion valuation in the largest IPO in history. It’s a massive moment for the market broadly, but SpaceX is headquartered in the LA area, so its direct housing impact lands more there, less so here.
- The two that matter most for us: Anthropic filed its confidential paperwork with the SEC on June 1, and OpenAI followed a week later, on June 8. Analysts are pointing to public listings as soon as this fall, both reportedly targeting valuations near or above $1 trillion. Both companies are headquartered right here in San Francisco.
- One more to watch: Oura, the smart ring maker, also filed confidentially for an IPO in late May. Smaller than the other two by valuation, but notable for a different reason — Oura recently relocated its headquarters from Finland to San Francisco.
Recall the UC Berkeley research we mentioned last month: across 711 Bay Area IPOs over a 20-year period, offer size had a measurable effect on home values within 20 miles of a company’s headquarters, both short and long term. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Oura are all that close. None of these have priced yet, and timelines can slip — but the filings are no longer hypothetical, and fall is no longer far away.
If our “window” theory has any teeth, time may genuinely be short.
So, What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re buying:
- Historically, buyers who go into contract in July, generally pay less per square foot than buyers competing in March. But this year, inventory is at its lowest point in at least three years — 850 active listings across the entire city in May — so any seasonal discount may be smaller than in prior cycles. The real opportunity this summer isn’t a price cut. It’s less competition for the homes that do come available. Stay engaged, know what you’re looking for, and be ready to move.
- This summer may be your best shot at slightly less competition before the fall IPO wave. Don’t wait around for a discount that may not show up — show up ready, and be willing to take a real home over a perfect one (which will never come along).
- If you’ve been on the fence, treat the AI IPO timeline as a soft deadline. We don’t know exactly when that wealth lands in the market. We do know the filings are public and the clock has started.
If you’re selling:
- The Outer Richmond home is proof that a well-priced, well-prepared home in the right pocket of the market is still going to spark real competition, even in mid-June.
- If your property has built-in friction — a TIC, an unusual layout, a price anchored more to hope than to data — expect buyers to be more selective right now, especially as summer fatigue sets in.
- If you can get to market before the July slowdown, you may catch the last of this spring/early-summer momentum before things quiet down.
A Few Questions We're Getting Right Now
Is summer a good time to buy a home in the Bay Area? Historically, yes — and the data is consistent. Buyers who have gone into contract in July (closing in August) generally have paid less per square foot than spring buyers, particularly focusing on the last few years from 2022 through 2025. The difference has ranged from about $35/sq ft to over $100/sq ft, depending on the year. That said, 2026 has a meaningful asterisk: active inventory in San Francisco stood at just 850 listings in May — down 24% year-over-year and the lowest we've seen in at least three years. Less competition matters less when there's also less to choose from. Whether the usual summer dip shows up in the August 2026 data is genuinely an open question. Buyers who win in this window won't be the ones waiting around for an obvious bargain — they'll be the ones who stay ready and move decisively when the right home comes along.
Why did one home get 11 offers and another get zero on the same week? Property type, pricing strategy, and how realistic the original expectations were all matter more than the neighborhood or the market. A home priced to spark a bidding war (intentionally or not) will usually get one. A home priced ahead of what the market will bear — or one with more complexity — needs the right buyer to come along, and that can take longer.
Will the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs really affect Bay Area home prices? Based on prior Bay Area IPO cycles, yes, historically they have — research tracking IPOs from 1996–2015 found a measurable effect on home values within 20 miles of a company's headquarters. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are San Francisco–based and have filed the paperwork to go public, with listings possible as early as this fall.
As always, we’re not saying any of this to create urgency for its own sake. We’re saying it because it’s what we’d tell our own family. If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation — buying, selling, or just trying to figure out your timeline — you know where to find us. 📩
