Labor Day is over — and in real estate, that means the fall market is officially HERE.
If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, waiting for signs of more inventory, you’re in luck: post–Labor Day is historically the moment when new listings spike, buyer activity returns from summer, and the pace of the market starts to pick up again.
And this year? We expect an even stronger surge. The data — both macro and micro — says so.
BY THE NUMBERS
📈 Market Snapshot: Why Fall Means More Inventory
Based on historical data,
- New listings typically rise 15–30% after Labor Day and continue through October before the holiday slowdown.
- The Unsold Inventory Index has been historically low all year (meaning, not much inventory on the market) — but sellers are starting to return.
- As of June 2025, new listings for single-family homes were at 2.5 months of supply, well below the long-term average of 4.2 months. That gap is starting to close.
Expect that September and October will bring the highest inventory levels we’ve seen since at least early 2024 — which gives buyers more options, and sellers a clearer picture of buyer demand.
🔥 Why This Fall Will Be Hot(ter)
Despite consumer sentiment still lagging, here’s what the facts are telling us:
- Mortgage Rates Are Softening: The average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate recently dipped to 6.58%, the lowest since October 2024—offering buyers a modest break in affordability. (And, while we’re all still waiting and hoping for rates to continue to drop, it’s important to remember that current rates are still well below historical averages.)
- GDP and Economic Growth Are Holding Steady: U.S. GDP held at a healthy 3% growth in Q2, surpassing expectations and indicating sustained economic momentum among consumers and businesses alike.
- Labor Market Remains Resilient: Overall unemployment remains low — 4.2% nationally — and wages continue to support borrowing capacity for potential homebuyers.
- Stock Markets Are at Record Highs: Major U.S. equity indexes continue to hit new all-time highs, which further locks in the “Wealth Effect.”
- AI & Tech Investment Is Fueling Economic Tailwinds: Capital investment into AI, including data centers and high-tech infrastructure, continues to ramp up, bringing high-paying jobs and economic confidence back to the Bay Area.
- Rents are at record highs, but home prices are still below peak in many SF and Bay Area markets — creating a rare opportunity window.
- 89% of California homeowners now have 30%+ equity, making it easier for them to trade up or relocate.
Put simply: These factors (easing borrowing costs, economic growth, labor market strength, and long-term industry tailwinds) create a rare alignment that supports homebuying confidence this fall.
⏱ The Gap is Closing: Rental Market → Sales Market
Last month, we talked about how the rental market has been on fire, while the sales market was more sluggish. That gap is already starting to narrow.
Why? Because:
- It’s faster to sign a lease than to close a sale — the rental market tends to react first.
- Buyers (especially those relocating to the Bay Area for work) and investors are watching the rental spike — and realizing ownership might make more financial sense.
- The Big Beautiful Bill added a number of financial incentives to encourage home ownership and investor activity.
- As more listings hit the market this fall, we expect a flurry of activity from those who were waiting for better inventory or better timing.
This may be one of the last chances to buy before the market fully catches up.
FACTS VS FEELINGS: Which Will You Follow?
While all of the macro and micro economic indicators signal a strong market, consumer confidence remains one of the only things that is down.
But, sentiment isn’t strategy.
If you’re trying to time your next real estate move, the real question is:
Will you follow what the market is actually doing — or how people around you “feel” about it?
The data says it’s GO TIME!
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or just better understand your options — this is your moment to act on facts, not fear.
📩 Reach out to talk strategy. We’re always here to help you navigate this market with clarity, confidence, and an eye on long-term value.
