The Fall Market is Heating Up… Just Later – and – Faster Than Usual
Fall in the Bay Area real estate market usually kicks off with a bang right after Labor Day. This year? It’s arriving late — but finally arriving.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen multiple-offer scenarios return (especially in SF), renewed buyer urgency, and a noticeable uptick in traffic at open houses. This shift isn’t just anecdotal — it’s part of a broader pattern we’re observing, even before the data catches up.
Here’s why we believe the market is turning upward — and why NOW may be the last quiet(er) moment to buy before Spring really heats up.
BREAKING IT DOWN
Inventory Is Finally Picking Up 📣
Across the Bay Area:
- New listings jumped 17% month-over-month in September (while it is still constrained, we’ll take the extra inventory!)
- Months of supply dropped in most core Bay Area markets, signaling faster movement of that additional inventory
- Days on market is ticking down again, especially for properly-priced homes.
Across much of the Bay Area, we see broadly the same pattern: inventory, while increasing, is still low relative to demand. However, the velocity of sales is picking up (i.e., faster pace, shorter days on market, rise in over-ask offers for good listings) — especially in the most desirable neighborhoods.
*With one important caveat: Some areas / sectors (e.g. parts of the East Bay or condo‑heavy submarkets), have had inventory spikes, while sales momentum has been a bit more tempered. In those areas, buyers may have more room to negotiate.
Why Buyers Are Engaging Now 🧠
San Francisco’s office sector is still working through historic vacancy levels, but there’s very clear momentum building, suggesting that this is the tipping point:
Several market forces are converging:
- Fed Rate Cuts: Projections suggest two additional cuts by year-end. Markets and futures still expect more easing into 2026, which may be encouraging buyers to act ahead of further rate relief (aka before demand spikes)
- The OpenAI Tender Event: Eligible employees are set to receive up to a $1.5M bonus — just one of many tech cash infusions from the booming AI sector.
- AI Money Is Real and Local: San Francisco is home to 8 of the top 10 most heavily funded AI startups. We’re already seeing founder, investor, and employee capital flowing into both residential and multifamily real estate. Rental rates are increasing at their highest rate in YEARS, and have the highest YoY increase over the US. ***Home sales tend to lag rental market spikes by ~3–6 months — and with Bay Area rents up over 7% YoY, the writing’s on the wall..
- A Macro Tailwind: Unemployment remains below 4%, the S&P 500 is hovering near record highs, and wage growth in the Bay Area is outpacing national trends.
Timing Matters 🗓️
Historically, winter has been an excellent time to buy in the Bay Area. Fewer buyers = less competition, even if inventory dips slightly.
With this late fall momentum and expectations of a hot spring, waiting until Spring could mean:
- Competing with more cash-heavy, post-AI-liquidity buyers
- Facing more bidding wars, driven by renewed demand
- Missing your moment before the headlines catch up
And, don’t forget: In 2026, in San Francisco, we will have the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup, major global attention on SF. If there was ever a city poised for a comeback arc, it’s this one.
Final Thoughts and Our Crystal Ball Advice 🔮
We’ve been here before. In the past, we’ve reported to you when we felt things were heating up quickly (April report here) and then when things slowed down, before the data showed it (June report here).
So, you heard it here first…We’re seeing solid signs now….
Buyers!!!
If you’ve been waiting for the “right time” to buy, this might be your last opportunity before prices go up in a meaningful way. (Prices are expected to go up at least 3-4% in California next year – and with the AI money coming in to San Francisco, we expect this number to be even higher for our local market).
sellers!!!
If you’ve been waiting for your moment, don’t wait until Spring to start the selling process. Let’s get ahead of things, to start doing the right, strategic prep now so you’re ready to rock n’ roll for our Spring Market.
