Let’s Talk Market Momentum
In our October report, we said things were heating up before the data showed it. We talked about rising buyer urgency, more multiple-offer situations, and early signs of inventory tightness.
Well, guess what? The data is now catching up.
From a Presidio Heights home with 15 offers to a $4.2M Central Richmond stunner with multiple offers ($400K over asking), the market is bouncing back — and, in many cases, outpacing previous comps.
Why is this happening now?
- Fall buyers are trying to beat the rush expected this spring.
- AI-fueled liquidity (including OpenAI’s $1.5M-per-employee tender event) is starting to move into the market. Lenders are working with these employees and at 9 additional startups to get them into homes before their big liquidity events expected in 2026
- Additional FED rate cuts are expected in early 2026, and savvy buyers want in before that competition spikes.
- Low inventory persists, but velocity is up — a classic sign of upward pressure.
By the numbers
Let’s dive into some of the hot-off-press numbers across a few of the markets we serve to show you what’s going on:
🏡 San Francisco
- Inventory remains tight, with new listings down 12.8% YoY
- Single-family homes are moving quickly: Median DOM dropped to 15 days
- Condo demand is rebounding, especially for units with outdoor space and parking
🌲 Mill Valley
- Median sale price: $2.2M, up 9% YoY
- Days on Market: 14 days, even a tad faster than SF and showing strong competition
- Inventory is low but stable, with desirable homes moving quickly in Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, and Homestead Valley
🌉 Burlingame
- Median price: $2.5M, with sale-to-list ratios holding at 104%
- DOM down to 9 days — one of the lowest in the Bay
- Buyers are showing up early and ready, even for fixer opportunities
📈 California Trends
- Buyer Traffic Index rose from 47.6 to 52.3 — tipping into a seller’s market across the state
- Months of Inventory at just 2.7 statewide and even lower in core Bay Area zip codes (This means that if no more homes hit the market, at this pace, we’d sell out of all available homes in 2.7 months.)
- Realtor optimism is rising, with 68% expecting stronger activity in Q1–Q2 of 2026
💰 AI Wealth & Economic Tailwinds
As we all know, SF leads the AI investment with 8 of the top 10 most heavily funded startups and the large majority of AI startups, in general. Of course, we have all been hearing about the OpenAI Tender Event, where some employees are expected to get up to $1.5M each. Regardless, wage growth in the Bay Area is outpacing national trends, and unemployment remains below 4%.
We also expect that many (if not all) of the following companies’ IPO or to see some sort of liquidity event in 2026:
- Rippling
- Canva
- Stripe
- Databricks
- 1Password
- SpaceX
- Ramp
- Navan
- Coalition
AKA: National headlines don’t tell the accurate story here. In general, our market is hot. 🔥
Final Thoughts
If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, we believe this fall/winter represents the last “calm” before a likely surge. Our crystal ball 🔮 tells us that Spring 2026 will bring:
- Pent-up demand
- More AI/Tech cash in the market
- Likely rate cuts
- The Super Bowl, Copa América, and a city full of buzz
If you’re even thinking about buying or selling in the next 12 months, now’s the time to talk strategy. We’re seeing the future unfold in real time — and our clients are already getting ahead of it!
