I hope this Summer has been treating you well. Here I am again with your monthly housing update…
So, if you’ve been waiting for rising rates to finally slow things down in the housing market, the data says otherwise, at least for San Francisco.
We’re going to break it down for you, focusing this month on San Francisco. (But, if you’re curious about how other parts of the Bay are performing, you know where to find us).
Wait, Aren't Higher Rates Supposed to Cool the Market Down?
That’s the textbook story, anyway. As rates climb, monthly payments get more expensive, some buyers step back, and competition eases.
Here’s what actually happened: the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.69% the week of August 6, 2026, then 6.67% the following week — both essentially the highest weekly readings of the year, up from 6.16% back in January and the mid-6.20s in March. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, has pointed to persistent inflation concerns as the driver behind the climb.
By the textbook, that should be the moment buyers pause. But, in San Francisco, it wasn’t!
So What Actually Happened in the City This Summer?
Here’s what we saw with single-family homes in San Francisco in July.
'Days on market' has now sat at 12 for five straight months (March through July 2026), the lowest sustained pace we've seen since 2021, when rates were in the 2's and 3's.
This number should be a lot lower, but we're seeing a lot of single family homes explicitly say "no preemptive offers" and holding to their set offer date.
Normally, prices ease a bit from June into July as the market starts its summer slowdown. That happened this year too — but only a 0.9% dip, compared to average dips of roughly 3% in each of the prior three years. So, the seasonal cooldown that usually shows up by midsummer barely showed up at all.
So, condos are waking up too — just more slowly.
After years of essentially flat prices, condo prices have eased for two months since May's peak. Is this a trend or just a seasonal dip? We shall see...
Why Does It Feel Like There's Nothing to Buy?
This is the part most coverage gets wrong. It’s not that new listings dried up — it’s that whatever comes on gets absorbed almost immediately.
New single family home listings in July 2026 came in at 670, only about 5% below July 2025’s 707, and April and May 2026 were both within 2-4% of last year. That’s a normal seasonal slowdown, not a collapse — sellers are still listing homes at roughly the same pace as usual this time of year. Condo listings actually ran slightly ahead of last year (766 in July, up about 2%) — so it’s not a supply story on either side of the market. It’s absorption.
What’s different is what happens after that. A home that would have taken two weeks to sell in 2023 is now off the market in under two — and that turnover speed is what’s making inventory feel nonexistent, even though the flow of new listings hasn’t actually broken from its usual pattern. 🏡
What This Means If You're Buying
Don’t wait on rates to do the work for you. The data above says clearly that even a “highest rate of the year” moment hasn’t slowed this market down — the 12-day pace means there’s very little room for indecision once the right home appears.
And if you’ve been eyeing a condo as the “easier” path with less competition — that edge is shrinking. Condos are still a bit slower to sell than houses, but not by nearly as much as they used to be.
This is exactly why we spend real time with buyers before they ever tour a property. Our clients average 1.5 offers before winning — against a Bay Area market average of 4 to 5 — and the gap comes down to being ready to move the moment something fits, not to luck.
What This Means If You're Selling
If you’ve been holding off, wondering whether elevated rates might quiet things down — they haven’t, at least not yet. This remains one of the fastest, most competitive markets we’ve tracked. Well-prepared, well-priced listings are moving in under two weeks — and that’s now true whether you’re selling a house or a condo.
Worth keeping in mind: if new listings do drop off further into late August, as they have the past two years, sellers who list now may see less competition from other sellers than those who wait for fall.
The Bottom Line
Every signal we’d normally expect to slow things down — rates at their highest point of the year, the usual midsummer lull — showed up this year and barely made a dent. Houses didn’t cool. Condos didn’t cool. If you’re waiting for a quieter moment to make your move, the data says it’s not coming anytime soon. The smarter move is getting ready now, so you’re not the one still deciding when the right place shows up. As always, reach out anytime you want to talk through what this means for you specifically — happy to help. 🏡
